149599-ncsoft-earnings-q4-2015

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Expertise is not required to understand the only two things relevant to this game: 1. The revenues are up compared to the several month stretch preceding F2P. That's good, because if that hadn't happened this game would be dead in the water. 2. The revenues are still a tiny fraction of those from every other game in NCSoft's portfolio--small enough that this game's entire revenue stream is about the same as the quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in revenue for the other games. That's bad, it means the game simply can't afford a lot of development and promotion. Hopefully they can leverage the coming China and Steam markets into further increases in revenue, which will translate into further resources for development.


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This just this... couldnt say it better myself... Hopefully since leadership has passed hands pappy will do this game justice. Pappy if your reading this we need more cosmetics in the cash shop.. we need costume styles that will get our attention.. whats currently offered for the most part looks like rags from a second hand store (insert prince song here).. WE need eye gouging deco styles that when you buy unlock them in the vender... wall textures ect would work perfectly here. How about some deeds lets have the options of buying more housing plugs and im not talking about the holiday ones that share the same deco limit as the plot.. im talking about buying a deed to unlock an additional housing plug with its own deco limits... sell us the options to buy several... Mounts and more of them.. cool ones. Not some beat up vehicle that you find in an auto junk yard.. Lets have more fluff and stuff... WE NEED EYE CANDY CARBINE!!!!


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Here's a bit of context: It's an F student eking out a D. Going in the right direction but still on probation. They really do need to get back to at least half of their launch revenue. I'm a little disconcerted that the F2P conversion didn't give them an even higher boost than it did. OTOH a lot of subs were coasting on the four month grant so maaaaybe sub revenue will pick up some as that expires. That said I'm fairly optimistic about Wildstar's continuing operation at least for another 18-24 months. NCSoft wouldn't invest in China or Steam if they weren't willing to give Carbine time to build those markets. I like Pappy's enthusiasm for the game and expect him to provide guidance to both Carbine and NCSoft that's good for the long term health of the game and to not sacrifice it on the altar of short-term profits. While the wait was somewhat frustrating, we're finally seeing content plans being rolled out. If they can keep up the pace -- and I believe they can -- Wildstar will have a bright future. The student may be struggling but the remedial plan is in place and there's progress.


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And until Carbine shows us (which they won't do, since we're not their investors/owner) what their overhead is, and shows us that it costs close to run the game as much as it does for their other IPs, then about 95% of that pessimism is baseless. If it makes enough of a profit to keep the content coming, then that's all that matters.

Edited February 16, 2016 by Dharnell


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People always compare Wildstar's trajectory to City of Heroes, but the circumstances are far from similar. Years prior to CoH's shuttering, NCSoft fully acquired the IP and the development studio with the intention of creating a second development house (after the one in Austin) in North America. Paragon Studios (then NCSoft NorCal) was established not just to run CoH but also to develop additional games. Despite City of Heroes turning a profit, at the time, Paragon Studios also had two other IPs in development which means CoH's profits might not have outweighed the cost of running the studio. CoH's closure also came after NCSoft lost $6 million in the previous quarter, meaning they had to make some overture to shareholders to ensure they were fixing things. NCSoft's decision to close Paragon Studios might not have been entirely due to CoH, but Paragon Studios as a whole. In regards to this, there was also a lot of theorizing (though obviously never substantiated), that NCSoft's closing of Paragon Studios was so they could put all their chips behind GW2. CoH may have been making money, but GW2 had the potential to make much more. A lot of people look at the fact that CoH's closure was announced (8/31/2012) just days after GW2's launch (8/28/2012) as evidence of this. Considering how well GW2 was selling at the time. it was a very easy thing to do to ensure the following quarter would be up. Comparatively, Carbine is a much smaller studio and was recently moved in-house. As far as we know, their focus is entirely on Wildstar and don't have any additional operating costs outside of that. They can make less money than Paragon Studios and still be more profitable due to lower operation costs. Even so, despite Wildstar's profits not rising as high as expected, NCSoft just had one of their best quarters and its stock is steadily climbing (compared to the freefall it was in in 2012) so there isn't currently pressure for them to cut costs. As far as we know, NCSoft also does not have any MMOs in development in NA that might make them want to shift their focus from Wildstar (and it's unlikely to happen anytime soon considering how far in advance MMOs are announced). And, as others have mentioned, Wildstar has yet to launch in China - a place where CoH could never get off the ground (superheroes didn't translate as well at the time). I'm not saying this to paint a pretty picture and say everything is a-ok. I'm saying Paragon Studios and Carbine Studios are very different companies. We can't look at the numbers CoH pulled and compare them to Wildstar because that doesn't show the entire picture nor consider all the circumstances that led up to CoH's closing.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Cantatus


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I still hold that pushing Wildstar to F2P was premature. They really should have been given three years to find their feet before they started tinkering with the funding model.


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There is now way the game could have lasted that long if they were having problems right after the game's launch and  YoY loss. What they should have done was did a lot of advertising and releasing it on Steam the same day it went F2P

Edited February 18, 2016 by Azzurri


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