133511-wonder-how-many-players-playing-this-game-right-now

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This.

And this.

But probably not this.


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Got a nice chuckle out of this one. I can walk through an entire zone without seeing a single person (one time I saw 2 people in Defile!), and queue times can easily break 1-2 hours (my record is 5 before I finally logged for the night). I can't recall a single other mmo that felt more barren.


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I'm not playing games with you about whether 150k is or isn't "in the 100k range", that's a phrase that is there explicitly to make clear that it's a rough approximation.

Uh... that's not an example of someone claiming that the game has at least 100k active players. There's no reason to think all or even most of the 150k people who downloaded an addon over the course of the last year are still playing. The focus of his post is on the monthly downloads being more that 5000 because he's responding to a post estimating that there's only 5k currently active players, and his evidence on that point is pretty strong. We know that this was his point because the part of that same post that you didn't include said this:

Earlier in the thread, Tibolt did estimate the game has about 150k active players earlier in the thread, using the following logic:

In other words, we know the game had about 38k players in Q3 because that's how many people the revenues could account for. That number is an underestimate of the real player number at that time because some people were playing off CREDD reserves or long-term subscriptions that weren't counted as revenue in Q3. IF the number of stably active players "at least doubled" following the transition to F2P and relaunch window, then at least 76k people would be playing these days, with a larger number likely but not known with any accuracy based on how many players were playing without contributing to the Q3 revenues and how much better the F2P relaunch was than two-fold. His estimate of 150k at the end suggests he doubled a ~75k minimum to roughly account for those unknowns, but that's obviously meant to simply be a rough guess. Personally, I think those estimates are probably too generous, but he clearly wasn't trying to use them as some precise accounting and I'm not going to nitpick over it. Regardless, his estimate wasn't completely out in the stratosphere like your estimates have been. Edited to correct a spelling error--a clear sign of gross incompetence if ever there was one.

Edited January 18, 2016 by yasfan


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